The Premier League’s top 10 overperforming goal scorers this season including Brighton, Man City, Newcastle and Arsenal stars - gallery
By Matt Pole
Published 10th Mar 2023, 10:43 BST
Updated 10th Mar 2023, 10:51 BST
Which Premier League players are buying their team the most goals due to their clinical finishing?
Expected goals [xG] provides a measure of how many goals a player is expected to have scored based on their shots.
By subtracting a players xG from their goals, we can see which are excelling at finishing and scoring from chances that an average player simply would not.
Here are the Premier League’s top 10 overperforming goal scorers this season, according to BetVictor.
The players analysed for this study had a minimum of 900 minutes played and four goals scored in the 2022/23 season.
Here are the Premier League’s top 10 overperforming goal scorers this season, according to BetVictor.
9. Rodrigo - Leeds United
Leeds United’s Rodrigo has the joint third best shots per 90 minute rate of any player with a return of 3.61 – only Liverpool's Darwin Núñez (5.27), Fulham's Aleksandar Mitrović (4.02), and Arsenal's Gabriel Jesus (3.69) faired better. The Whites star has 10 Premier League goals this season with an xG of 6.5 - an overperformance of 3.5 Photo: Jan Kruger/Getty Images
10. Roberto Firmino - Liverpool
Liverpool's Roberto Firmino has the highest shot on target percentage of any players this season (61%). The Brazilian has eight Premier League goals this season with an xG of 4.5. This is an overperformance of 3.5 Photo: Michael Regan
11. Kaoru Mitoma - Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion's Kaoru Mitoma will be on the radar of many big clubs this summer and it is not just his dribbling that’s caught the eye, he has the joint second highest shot on target percentage (60%) bettered only by Liverpool's Roberto Firmino (61%). Mitoma also has a better goals per shot ratio than Manchester City's Erling Haaland with 0.30 goals per shot – Haaland is third with 0.28 and Tottenham Hotspur's Rodrigo Bentancur is first with 0.33. The Japan winger has six Premier League goals this season with an xG of three - and overperformance of three goals Photo: Clive Rose/Getty Images